Monday, 16 February 2009

black swan

So I’m reading a book called The Black Swan; a novel written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Its premise is the big uncertainty that people never take account of… one that is never mitigated for… one that no contingency is set aside to take care of… simply because living in a box prevents us from thinking outside of it. As a result, society has conditioned us to very rarely factor in any uncertainty associated with black swans into any of our evaluations.

People used to think that all swans were white… it was what was once known to be true so during that time one would have been ridiculed beyond humiliation for even daring to think otherwise… that is… until a black swan was sighted.

An unassailable belief, eventually disproved has three attributes: firstly, it is rooted in the realm of regular expectations; secondly, there is an extreme impact associated with the realisation that the belief no longer holds true; and lastly, there is a need for a concocted explanation that fits. The third is necessary… why?... simply because people do not like the unknown… I guess it is comforting to think that everything can still fit neatly inside the box they choose to live in.

Like I said in the house of agbada daggers, this is my look inward through an enclosure of boundless space. This weblog is what I use to capture thoughts and memories as they occur since I don’t keep a diary. The good thing about this practice is I cannot hide behind retrospective distortion… I cannot overevaluate because my ability to rationalise to a final answer is limited.

Does it really matter that I am doing this without the full benefit of hindsight… I guess it is a condition of life that one suffers or benefits as a consequence of a series of unfolding events without never really being able to see the full picture. I hope that by writing down my unrevised perceptions that contain no illusions of understanding, I may study these events later… to be better prepared perhaps... is that even possible?!... not absolutely.

As this is a diary of sorts, I should have started this entry with how I was feeling today…physically, I am fine… well apart from my nose… you see yesterday I decided to be lazy (by not walking over to the passenger side of my car to get my shopping) which resulted in me smashing my nose against the side frame of the car as I turned to remove the shopping bags that I had reached over to get. I swear to God I thought I heard a crack. Now how is that for unplanned impact?... lol… I laugh now but it still hurts like mad... I can breathe ok so I didn’t rush to A&E.

So apart from that I am doing okay (the ton of assignments I have to do for the various projects I am working on don’t count).

So now I sit in bed and type this to the still of the night. I am one that has always cherished the peace within. Yet for the past four weeks I have lain awake listening to the searching hum of your song. Why? To you I am a black swan: ‘the incomprehensible’ despite the fact that I try and stay as what you know.

How I wish I could make you understand that Flying Snow is a just that part of me that dares to dream the serendipitous dreams of the black swan. Will you not dream with me? I know you are scared but try and understand that people in glass houses should not throw stones... our joint failing is that ‘we do not learn that we do not learn’.

I love you but I do not understand this need of yours for corroboration… as you look for strength in confirming bias based on loose concoctions; I see vulnerability. I know why you are desperate for others to see a false danger by disconfirming my establish truth… but how can that work? you were the one that taught me that my world is not flat, but round. Truth is truth.

These past few weeks, before I laid my head to sleep, I have looked to the faith in myself and prayed, just like you taught me. I still see a world of infinite possibilities. Let me tell you of one of other marvels the Good Shepherd showed me: it was you. I saw you smiling, arms outstretched and full with your parcels; gifts of love, ever selfless.

Your love is like nothing else: giving, insightful but it can also be lawless, crushing and unremorseful.

You are afraid,
I am afraid.

Mãe, I keep trying but you have to meet me halfway…


bumight 16 February 2009 at 22:46  

i feel really envious of you people that can just pick up a book and read- just for fun.
my envy couldnt let me get past "so i'm reading a book called The black swan"

so, i read this post and ALL i'm thinking is "She is reading a book called the Black swan"

I want to be reading a book called the black swan
I want to be reading a book - period!

so all im going to say is this: "the broken nose is your punishment for being able to read a book called The Black Swan!"

there, I feel better already!

Zayzee 16 February 2009 at 23:22  

lol@ bumight. u r on a row. maybe im falling asleep at my laptop, is it the book u r reviewing or u r talking about our shortcomings and the ever faithful God who meets us halfway all the time?

Jay 17 February 2009 at 00:18  
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jay 17 February 2009 at 00:20  

Have i ever told you that you are one of my favourite writers? well you are...the way you teased and weaved this post together is very intricate and exquisite. You tell stories beautifully....the good sheppard is back!!!!!

Rita 17 February 2009 at 07:05  

Where have you been? Hope you’re doing good...

The black swan...sounds very interesting or is it the way you made it sound...

I hope Mãe meets you sound like you've taken giant strides already...

O'Dee 17 February 2009 at 08:25  

Sorry about your nose love.

He'll meet you halfway.

JS 17 February 2009 at 09:11  


I have said it once, I will say it again, I just enjoy reading your epistle.

Oh yes, I was 'racking' my head where I 1st came across Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the Black Swan. I now remember it was a couple of years ago during my research as an active day trader.

Nassim is well read and a breath of fresh air.

Read what he's got to say about himself;

"My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves & the quality of their knowledge too seriously & those who don’t have the courage to sometimes say: I don’t know...." (You may not be able to change the world but can at least get some entertainment & make a living out of the epistemic arrogance of the human race."

I like that, don't you?


Afrobabe 17 February 2009 at 09:52  

Hmmm firstly, I had to read this post with a dictionary!!!

Secondly, where does a review of the book stop and a comparism of ur life start?? sounds to me that the book brought out something you have been battling with...

Presently reading a boom called "a small part of me" by Noelle harrison...kind of makes me feel I am also manic depressive...

Caelestis Angelus! 17 February 2009 at 10:27  

Wow, some deep stuff with many many english too. Sorry about the nose, it happens. Ive learnt to be more meticulous now, it helps. Please write more often, i love your posts

CaramelD 17 February 2009 at 11:16  

OK wow! I think you have entered a deep level of introspection that I sometimes run away from because my mind won't be able to leave some questions at bay.

PS Sorry about the nose

Unknown 17 February 2009 at 13:03  

I hear you. I don't know what to say. Dare I say it...?

Baby I'm scared of you.

Anonymous,  17 February 2009 at 13:10  

I know this took a lot. It is beautiful. You are beautiful.

Wish I could say more.
I want to say more:)

Ms Sula 17 February 2009 at 20:53  

I have heard great reviews about The Black Swan... I will look into it.

The relationship we have with our mothers is often a very interesting map. It tells us so much about ourselves, about them, about the world.

I don't know what to say, but I know exactly how you feel. I have been in this exact same position before. I have chucked it up to "growing up"... The moment you realize your parents are not the superhumans/gods who make no mistakes that you thought they were. After all, they are only human and we have to take them, love them because of it.

Hang in there. She'll come around eventually.

Lovely write-up.

Anonymous,  17 February 2009 at 21:33  

"...showed me: it was you. I saw you..." i knew 'twas just a matter of time, didn't realise you'd recognise me so easily. Anyway, as per "...apart from my nose…...", come, i should be able to sort it out for you.

Smaragd 18 February 2009 at 14:30  

lol @ bumight.

Shubby, i thought i had finally gone beyond not understanding your posts, cuz i've done well with the past godknowshowmany posts, but now i'm lost again!

maybe it's because u are a black swan!

sorry about ur broken nose though.

Smaragd 18 February 2009 at 14:36  


u know why people wouldnt readily believe the existence of the black swan? because a black swan confuses the people, black swans go against the norm, they make pple ask qstns, they are unusual, enigmatic...

so u see y it's very easy for people to forget that the black swan is just the elegant black version of the elegant white swan.

Jinta 18 February 2009 at 22:50  

cant fathom if you're talking about God or a man, therefore, i say: serves you right for the nose

that's mean, isn't it? ok pele. i would kiss it better but my kiss is lecherous

Shubby Doo 18 February 2009 at 23:46  

@bumight - lol...which kind bed side manner u get like this? so u go dey as doctor?...i'm reporting u to naapali (yes I still know how to find him)

u'll find time to read soon...4 now school first...

@uzezi - it's neither…

hope u managed to catch some sweet dreams

@wordmerchant - thanks

@rita - i'm fine thanks. u?

problem is one giant leap for me is a small step for mãe…and vice versa… *sighs*

@oluwadee - thanks

@jidesalu's diary- thanks & thanks for that quote too. i like it. I like him…not finished the book yet but it is a refreshing read

@afrobabe - lol...comot jare which diction you wan say no sabi my dear?

hmmm...not buying it sweetie...especially since u worked in the risk management field...compared to me u are an uncertainty guru!!!

can’t get anymore down in the dumps than I am about this so i will check out the book…

@caelestis angelus - thank u

@carameld - in order for a resolution i don’t think I can stop questioning this...

@da - scared of me? why?

@truthmaster - thank u. it has been on my mind for 2 long. tried to write this many times...just found the words to do so on monday.

been to yours and i like it.

@ms sula - mãe and i are 2 stubborn...i hope and pray u are right cos time has been making it worse not better...*sighs*

@rethots - really? u be doctor?

@007dudu - thanks

@smaragd - sorry...this is how i i analyse things that i want resolved… welcome to the wonderful world of me… lol

@jinta - it's about the black swan in me...and the black swan i'm assumed to does not equal the other...hence the problem

thanks for the kiss...i'm sure it is not that bad but sweetie since u used your own mouth to say so... i'll pass thanks!!!

doug 19 February 2009 at 03:14  

I read the post with the premise that much of it was not literal. As such I can't decide if you're referring to a person at the end.LOL.

If you are, then I love the last line above all else.

Buttercup 21 February 2009 at 12:44  

Aww sowee bout ur nose! All the best with ur projects..

I remember the tribute u wrote to Mãe, i cuda sworn u had a perfect relationship. I guess theres no such thing as perfection. I hope she does meet u half way..

James 22 February 2009 at 14:40  

The rarity of the black swan is what sets it apart from the regular.It's ok to be different. The road less travelled....Nice piece.

SOLOMONSYDELLE 23 February 2009 at 06:34  

oh my, not your nose? Sorry sweetie. How you feeling though? I'm sure its healing fine...

23 February 2009 at 07:19  

i can't read.
i can't read.
omoge, na waaaaa.
u r dam too educated for me.
i can't even spell my own name.

N.I.M.M.O 23 February 2009 at 09:25  

The way you write, one would need Websters for support. I swear lobsang Rampa gat nothing on you.

Don't worry Mae will come around. As said, its called growing up.

Sorry about the nose.

deola 23 February 2009 at 18:09  

hi there, how are you are u doing?

Emeka Amakeze 24 February 2009 at 05:46  

"Let me show you one of the other marvels the Good Shepherd showed me. It was you". That is inspiring!

aloted 24 February 2009 at 16:29  

hope ur nose is better now? pele

u talking abt ur mum in d end?

tobenna 25 February 2009 at 14:08  

The first part of this requires some level of literary genius to understand.
Black Swan, in a way sounds captivating to me. Because, even the black swan has friends and family. People that understand and know them.

I sense at the time of writing this, you were in the zone.
Hope you have a reason to be out.

Shubby Doo 25 February 2009 at 15:41  

@doug – Why am I not surprised that you respond most of all to my cry of

@buttercup – I’ve learnt that nothing in life is perfect…it is simply what you make it of it…

I hope so 2

@telekinesys – Robert Frost said ‘I took the road less travelled and that has made all the difference’… but is it not less travelled for a reason?!…I dunno… what I do know is that taking this path is my chance to reach a destination that assures the preservation of not only my sanity but my hopes and dreams…

@SSD – it’s all better now. thanks

@secret diary – can’t ke? I bet you can… this is u just being dependably discreet abi?! ;-)

@NIMMO – Lobsang Rampa ke?…lol...haba now u and I both know that the only scholarly thought in this post is that of Nassim Nicholas Taleb…

maybe it is a part of growing up... but I do wonder just how grown I’ll get b4 it happens… maybe Websters’ support can tell!

@deola – fine thanks. u?

@emeka amakeze – not sure about it being inspirational but I can tell you that it is my truth.

@aloted – It is thanks. I’m talking about mãe and I

@tobenna – you are right…the spirit of the black swan is derived from its relationships with such people…yet the whole is always more than the sum of such experiences… failing to realise that means the equation remains unbalanced…it means the impact of this growing uncertainty could be dire should it come true…hence our fears

JS 25 February 2009 at 16:38  

Hi Shooby Doo,

I am not stalking o. Just letting you know I visited.

Enkay 26 February 2009 at 10:52  

I've come by your blog like 10 times now but just haven't left a comment. Mostly because I have nothing to say - now.

So today, I decided to drop a comment to let you know I came by again.

Your nose nko? Ok now?

Nice blog!

LG 27 February 2009 at 09:46  

omoge how farz??? :)
hp u r doing well

Joy Isi Bewaji 28 February 2009 at 19:48  

so, shubby, when are u going to read mine?

Jay 2 March 2009 at 10:45  

Hey Missy, u ok? Just checking up on ya.

Buttercup 4 March 2009 at 14:15  

hey shubby...u ok???

Thirty + 5 March 2009 at 08:47  

Been a wee while

Guess I'll have to read the Black Swan to fully get the juice, although I see the my mother's daughter comparison.

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